Hummingbird Software
Fermat Risk Intelligence

Physical models are priced in. Behavioral isn't.
A predictive Loss Development Factor at the census-tract level — turning social inflation from a macro afterthought into a quantified edge.

Behavioral LDF

21,834 tracts · predictive loss dev. factor · social inflation quantified · AUC 0.94

Physical Damage

51 events · hail / tornado / hurricane / wildfire · v1.15_ancillary

CAT Book

10 treaties · synthetic workflow demo · attachment × behavioral loading

10Treaties
$4.2BLimit
1.27×Book pLDF
0.83Back-test R²
✓ BACK-TESTED · EATON + PALISADES FIRES · JAN 2025
R² = 0.826 controlling for physical damage. CC neighborhoods file claims at 2.04× the rate of CK neighborhoods — confirming behavioral amplification is real, measurable, and predictive. Click the LA event on the map to see full results.

Workflow demonstrator · Synthetic treaties · Behavioral model validated on real events · April 2026

FERMAT RISK INTELLIGENCE
PROTOTYPE PBL 1.27× ↑1.36×
Fermat Capital Management
✦ AI ANALYST
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